Regional Markets: Europe, Asia and US | Outlook 2026
15 December 2025 Market Outlook
Research & Insights

Secondaries: Capitalising on the wave

Regional markets:  Europe, Asia & US

The European secondaries market was active in 2025. Portfolios are performing well, and LPs are actively managing exposure – reducing US concentration while expanding into Asia. European LPs are increasingly proactive in the secondaries market, often willing to accept discounts to NAV to accelerate distributions. This pragmatism, combined with robust deal flow, positions Europe as a key growth engine for secondaries next year.

Increased appetite for European businesses drives LP investor behaviour
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Transcript

00:00:00 – 00:00:06
What we heard today, is that the only free lunch is diversification.

00:00:06 – 00:00:20
And I think that has been even more important this year after Liberation Day, a lot of LPs have realised that having exposure to Europe, thinking about their US exposure, their Asia exposure is very important.

00:00:20 – 00:00:25
So I think we’ve seen a renewed appetite into European assets and European businesses.

00:00:25 – 00:00:30
Those businesses have performed quite well, in the last few years.

00:00:30 – 00:00:36
So we’re seeing more LPs being positive about European businesses.

Asia’s secondaries story in 2025 was shaped by geopolitics and structural shifts. Chinese sellers have been offloading US portfolios, driving significant transaction volumes. Pan-Asian funds with heavy China exposure face fundraising challenges, making GP-leds an attractive tool to maintain AUM and stabilise operations.

Geopolitical turbulence drives Asian sellers to the secondaries market
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Transcript

00:00:00 – 00:00:08
The geopolitical tension and the tariff war has been happening since beginning of this year.

00:00:08 – 00:00:16
Earlier this year, people are considering where they want to reduce the exposure, but they’re actually taking actions now.

00:00:16 – 00:00:24
For example, Chinese sellers wanting to get out of US assets, American sellers are selling Chinese assets.

00:00:24 – 00:00:30
People are making geopolitical decisions on their assets rather than economic decisions.

00:00:30 – 00:00:36
So clearly that creates a tremendous opportunity as a buyer in the secondaries market.

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Across Asia, many investors are making decisions based on geopolitics and tariff wars rather than economics.
Peter Kim
Partner, Head of APAC

The US secondaries market is poised for a strong 2026, underpinned by several structural tailwinds. Tariff uncertainty is expected to remain a key macro driver, continuing to put pressure on portfolio company valuations and dampened traditional exit activity. This environment is projected to accelerate GP-led volume in the US as sponsors seek to hold assets until conditions stabilise.

The LP-led market is projected to be active in 2026. Of the 12,000 US companies held in funds, 8,000 are four years or older. In 2024, only 1,500 companies exited1, leaving a significant gap between aging portfolios and realised distributions. This backlog, coupled with the ongoing stalled exit environment, will push more LPs toward the secondaries market as delayed distributions persist.

References

1. Analysis drawn from Abbott Capital, MSCI, & EY, 2024–2025 data.

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