Private Capital Findings, Issue 21 | Coller Capital

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29 May 2025 Publication
Research & Insights

Private Capital Findings, Issue 21

Roundtable: Patterns of performance
What does your paper add to how LPs should be thinking about interim performance?

“Our research shows that it is possible to predict whether an investment will be among the best, or worst-performing investments at exit, based on the interim multiple, staleness of updates and past markdown frequency. Fundamentally, it shows that GPs are conservative in both directions. They tend to be overly cautious when marking up, but overly optimistic when staying flat or marking down – a pretty simple takeaway for investors.

“So, you can be confident when watching the valuation of SpaceX soar that it will keep going up, while on the flipside, when Pluralsight was marked down, that should have been an indication that it had further to fall, which indeed it did, ultimately being marked down to zero.”
Steve Kaplan

 

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Factors that impact interim valuations
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Monitoring historical movement of marks