Head to head: Portfolio construction
Private equity firms pride themselves on their origination and deal-making prowess, but is a general partner’s careful construction of a balanced portfolio within fund more important than any individual transaction? A new research paper examines this question.
Meet the experts
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David Robinson is the James and Gail Vander Weide distinguished professor of finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. David Robinson |
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Bevan Duncan rejoined Livingbridge as a partner in its value strategy group in 2023, having been a managing director at Gresham House and COO of financial services start-up Mintus. He was previously a member of the Livingbridge team from 2005 to 2018. Bevan Duncan |
Using a novel dataset of 5,925 portfolio companies across 467 funds managed by 315 PE firms, across multiple sectors and geographies, Portfolio Man...
The research finds that PE firms typically deploy the most capital in their lowest-returning investments. In other words, they take their biggest bets on their safest ideas, rather than their best ideas. It also finds that the earliest deals in a fund are slightly riskier, but that later ones tend to be much lower returning if they follow early successes.
Further, the research determines that at the fund level, returns can be attributed roughly equally to skill and luck. At the individual deal level, however, outcomes are much more variable and luck can play an outsized role in the success – or failure – of an individual deal. Taken together, these findings suggest that portfolio construction skill is vital to sustained success.